Trump, republicans, and right-wing media prepare us for chaos.
Maybe you noticed about two weeks ago as Democratic presidential nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris’s lead had plateaued in her national polling to about four points that a surge of polling suddenly had her opponent, Republican nominee and former president, Donald Trump, surging forward to either tie or best her. Not creep, or even spike, but with no October surprise or any major Trump announcement promising every voter free beer or major fuck-ups by Harris, suddenly Trump’s numbers went nuts. This is after over a month of stagnancy and even a dip in his polls after his severe debate shellacking at the hands of Harris, who subsequently enjoyed a building lead. Since joining the race in late July, in fact, Harris had taken former candidate, President Joe Biden’s four-to-six-point national deficit to a two-to-three-point buffer. This was over a slow burn for months, which is normally how this works, unless, say, they find out your VP pick had electroshock therapy (this happened to poor George McGovern in 1972, but even then took a few weeks to plummet). Yet, without a single rational statistical foundation … poof! Trump leads!
Hmmm.
In the parlance of political science, this is called bullshit, or (more pointedly) rat fucking, which is an actual term when members or subsets of a political campaign engage in underhanded or outright criminal behavior to queer the elements of a race not going their way. It was rat fucking that caused the eventual break-in of the Democratic Headquarters at the Watergate Hotel in June of 1972, which led to the inevitable downfall of President Richard M. Nixon. This time the rat fucking is better planned if not just as ineffective. (Although Nixon did defeat the aforementioned McGovern in the ’72 race, so efficiency is in the eye of the rat fucker.)
It was about two to three weeks ago as this race was solidifying for Harris that a slew of half-assed, right-wing-funded crazy polls began popping up, and were sucked erroneously into the already shaky election models of Nate Silver (Silver Bulletin), and his alma mater, 538, as well as the popular Real Clear Politics. Some of these pollsters, like TIPP Insights and AtlasInsights, are completely new or were strung together with string cheese during the now infamous Non-Red Wave 2022 mid-terms to jack up Republican numbers leading to the false narrative that the GOP would flip the Senate and gain some 30 to 40 seats in the House of Representatives, instead of what happened – losing a Senate seat and only gaining about 10 House seats. Then there are polls like the Trafalgar Group, which is a Republican propaganda machine and, as a result, has never been particularly well rated but for some reason still gets publicity.
You would be wise at the juncture to ask why I called these garbage polls “crazy.” One glaring example is AtlasInsights, which recently had Trump winning 46% of the African American vote. The Trump Team would be guzzling champagne from stilettos already, high on speed capsules by 10 on Election Night if they get north of 15%.
The other weird thing that has happened – but is only weird if you’re not a former degenerate gambler like me – is the infused pertinence of Betting Markets. Namely, PolyMarket, which is a corrupt gambling hub disguised as a “prediction market” for Wall Street hucksters and billionaire freaks to carve up your 401K into cheap labor, sex toys, and land grabs. If you were considering the concept of communism, PolyMarket would be your gateway drug. It is the kind of eye-of-a-needle capitalist shit Jesus was deriding about two millennia ago.
At the same time, the phony polls were being tossed into the 2024 election cauldron, and rich cretins like Elon Musk – who is currently the de facto campaign manager for Trump and has a dozen multi-million-dollar PACs and is offering to pay people off to vote for his fascist buddy – were flooding PolyMarket with cash to make Trump a prohibitive favorite to retake the White House with zero statistical or even anecdotal evidence to back it up. It is for all intents and purposes Trump’s big, beautiful wall paid for by Mexico in gambling form. To be fair to degenerate gamblers everywhere – all bookies or casinos hedge bets – it is how you make money on suckers: Jam the odds up on one team or this case a candidate and collect the bets (with an added vig, which the house’s cut of the bet, win or lose), then flip it to even it out, collect the bets on the other team and/or candidate (get those tasty vigs), and clean up.
Still, although the quasi-criminality of PolyMarket would dramatically shift things anyway, the evidence that filthy swine have used PolyMarkter for their own playground to control business narratives before and are doing it again, allowing their corporate-teat media mogul buddies to report on this low rent nonsense as news. This is the kind of half-assed chicanery that put Donald Trump on the map in the first place.
So, where does this all lead?
The Big Lie II, but this time we know it’s coming.
Trump’s lazy claims that if things go well, it is his doing; if not, it’s rigged against him. He did it in 2016, but then shut up when he won – although there was bitching about not winning the popular vote and sinking a ton of taxpayer money in a boondoggle to reverse the facts that went nowhere. And, of course, most egregiously, was 2020, when Trump convinced half the nation he actually won an election he lost by somewhere in the neighborhood of eight million votes, clogged up courts for over 60 cases (all lost), and then riled a mob of idiots to attack the U.S. Capitol. All of this is a matter of record, so there’s that.
Now, Trump is using trash pollsters, PolyMarket, and the Right-Wing Media sphere to claim he’s winning this thing easily when he is not. All independent polls have Harris if not maintaining her four-point national edge, then dipping slightly to three. He is also not thriving in the early mail or in-persona voting, despite some bumps in Republicans who now don’t see these methods as “fraudulent,” like Trump told them in 2020. So, when he gets spanked on Election Day, Trump will claim he won and was ripped off again. “The polls and betting market had me as a lock,” he’ll cry on FOX News, which will be sued again for airing it. Even his former advisor and newly released ex-con, Steve Bannon, said as much this week in a press conference in which he’s publicly counseled Trump – as he did privately in 2020 – to have a press conference an hour after the polls close on the east coast and declare victory, before unleashing the lawyers.
And, man, if there were any doubt of this plan, there are a lot of lawyers lying in wait. The Trump Campaign has spent more money on legal representation than travel expenses or a Get Out the Vote ground game, which he’s outsourced to a basement podcaster. Also, within the past 24 hours, Trump has begun claiming fraud in several battleground states and is readying for a fight to attain a job he clearly does not want. His last week has been spent riding around in garbage trucks, threatening to kill Liz Cheney, holding a hate rally in NYC, which he will lose by a billion votes, and mumbling something about white supremacy. He stopped trying once Biden left and has turned his “campaign” into becoming a ruse to toss this nation into the dung heap next to his casino bankruptcy.
It is clear now that this is ending in the Big Lie II, only with him sitting on the outside. Trump is no longer president and won’t have the levels of unspeakable power at his demented whims. That is unless we give it to him on November 5, which is looking even to Trump to be a longshot he must stop by building his next blueprint for chaos.
You were warned.
